Brother Luck Consulting · Bella's Creekwalk
Year One
Revenue
A grounded projection built on what Bella's has already proven and what Creekwalk is designed to add. Under-forecast revenue. Over-forecast expenses. That's how you build a business that lasts.
These numbers are built to be honest, not impressive. The philosophy is simple: under-forecast revenue and over-forecast expenses. If the projections are wrong, they should be wrong in your favor — not the bank's.
Total Projected Year One Gross Revenue
$3,030,000
Four concepts · Seven days a week · 365 operating days
Conservative Scenario
$2.4M
Lower cover counts, slower bar attachment, dinner ramp-up taking 90+ days. Plan to here. Hope for better.
Expected Scenario
$3.0M
Current model. Strong brunch volume, dinner building steadily, bar contributing from week one.
Aggressive Scenario
$3.8–4.2M
Full dinner capacity, high bar attachment, catering and wholesale layered in during Year One.
Annual Projection
$788,400
Current location averages 231 orders per day at $4,922 daily revenue in April 2026. Creekwalk projects conservatively at 120 covers — well below the proven volume — to account for the new location ramp-up period. Bar upside from bottomless and cocktail attachment is not included in this line. It is additional.
Annual Projection
$1,091,350
Dinner is the largest single revenue driver and the only entirely new operation. The $46 check average is supported by the entrée price range ($23–$32), two-side model, starter upsell, and bar attachment. At 65 covers this is a disciplined, manageable dinner service — not a full-capacity push in Year One. Grow into it.
Annual Projection
$273,750
Marketplace revenue is passive — it runs off the back of bakery production that's already happening. Bagels by the dozen, schmear tubs, soup quarts, packaged goods, deli by the pound. Guests arriving, guests leaving, delivery app pickups. Set it up right once and it generates revenue without adding meaningful labor cost.
What a Good Day Looks Like
Brunch
$2,160
120 covers · $18 avg
Dinner
$2,990
65 covers · $46 avg
Marketplace
$750
50 transactions · $15 avg
Bar Upside
$400+
Bottomless + cocktails · Not in base model
Daily Total
$8,300
Base model · Bar upside additional
Every day this building is closed after January costs approximately $8,300 in unrealized revenue.
Days of Operation
365 Days · 7 Days a Week
No dark days built into the model. If hours of operation change — closed Mondays, shorter winter hours — the annual numbers adjust proportionally. Confirm operating days before finalizing.
Seating Capacity
120–130 Dining · 10–12 Bar
Total estimated capacity of 130–142 guests. The 65-cover dinner projection runs at roughly 50% capacity — a realistic Year One target for a new dinner program with no existing data.
Revenue Philosophy
Under-Forecast Revenue
Every number in this model is intentionally conservative. The current Bella's location already exceeds the brunch projection. The upside is real. Plan to the floor, operate toward the ceiling.
Bar Revenue
Not Included in Base Model
Bar revenue — cocktails, wine, beer, bottomless — is additive to the projections above. At even modest attachment rates, bar adds $200–$500+ in daily revenue. It is the margin play that makes the model significantly stronger.
Catering & Wholesale
Not Included in Year One
Catering and wholesale have been identified as future revenue streams. They are not in this projection. They represent meaningful Year Two and Year Three upside once the core operation is stable.
Ramp-Up Period
First 90 Days Are Not Full Volume
No new restaurant opens at full capacity. The annual projection assumes a gradual ramp — lower covers in January and February, building toward the model by spring. The numbers reflect a full-year average, not day one performance.
The Bar Upside — Not in the Base Model
Modest Bar Attachment
Changes Everything
Bottomless — Brunch
Table of 4 doing bottomless Mimosas — $28/person, 90 min
$112 in bar revenue before food
Cocktail Attachment — Dinner
65 dinner covers, 40% order one cocktail at $14
$364 additional daily · $133K annual
Bottle Wine — Dinner
3 bottles sold per night at $72 average
$216 additional daily · $79K annual
1
Existing Brand Recognition
Bella's Bagels already has proven customer demand, operational validation, and a loyal guest base in Colorado Springs. Creekwalk is not starting from zero — it's starting from a foundation that took years to build. The brunch projection of 120 covers is already exceeded at the current location.
2
Dinner — A New Daypart, Not Borrowed Revenue
The current location does no dinner. The $1.09M dinner projection is entirely incremental — new guests, new occasions, new revenue that doesn't exist anywhere in the current business. Done right, dinner becomes the highest-margin daypart in the building.
3
The Bar — Open from 7am
The Broadmoor corridor market is wine and cocktail-driven. The bar program is built for that guest. Bottomless from 7am, Champagne by the glass, nine signature cocktails rooted in the Bella's identity. Bar revenue is not in the base model — which means every dollar it generates improves the projection.
4
Marketplace — Passive Revenue
The marketplace requires no additional labor to operate at scale. It runs off bakery production that's already happening. Set up the display cases right, merchandise them well, and the marketplace generates $273K annually with no meaningful incremental cost.
5
Catering & Wholesale — Year Two Upside
Not in this model, but identified as a future revenue stream. Once the kitchen is running efficiently and production volume is dialed in, catering and wholesale represent meaningful growth without requiring additional seating or a new concept. This is how $3M becomes $4M.
$3,030,000 is a number worth working toward. It's also a number that requires real decisions, real hires, and a real operating system behind it. The projection is only as good as the execution. That's what the rest of this package is built to support.